Cryptocurrency

NewsBTC Bitcoin & cryptocurrency news today, price & technical analysis

  • Why Bitcoin Could Return To $28,000, But By The End Of 2022

    Goldman Sachs analysts believe Bitcoin and the crypto market could see some relief, but only further short and mid-term turmoil. A recent report from the banking institutions claims the crypto market has been moving in tandem with the U.S. stock market and thus it has been affected by the macro-economic environment. Related Reading | Why Bitcoin Could Collapse Another 50%, Says Michael “Big Short” Burry The analysis was conducted by Marion Laboure and Galina Pozdnyakova and it predicts a 30% rally for Bitcoin by the end of 2022. This is still far from the cryptocurrency’s previous all-time high of around $69,000. The report fails to provide reasons that support the bearish theory. The analysts believe that Bitcoin’s correlation with the stock market will continue to play against it, and while they predict a bounce in equities, they believe BTC’s price will lag in terms of performance. For the stock market, the Goldman Sachs analysis predicts a resume on its bullish momentum and a potential bounce to its January 2022 levels. In the meantime, Bitcoin could reach $28,000 which is over $10,000 less than its January 2022 levels. Why will BTC underperform the stock market? It is unclear. As usual for legacy institutions, the analysts dismissed Bitcoin’s fundamentals and compared it to the diamonds market which they claimed to bloomed on the back of “marketing”: By marketing an idea rather than a product, they built a solid foundation for the $72 billion-a-year diamond industry, which they have dominated for the last eighty years. What’s true for diamonds, is true for many goods and services, including Bitcoins. The analysts wrote the following on the factors that contribute to the complexities of measuring the value in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, and why this could increase its downside risk: Stabilizing token prices is hard because there are no common valuation models like those within the public equity system. In addition, the crypto market is highly fragmented. The crypto freefall could continue because of the system’s complexity. The Short-Term Horizon For Bitcoin As NewsBTC reported, experts more familiar with the crypto industry believe Bitcoin and other large cryptocurrencies by market cap will keep on following the stock market. Former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX Arthur Hayes expects this correlation to contribute to the decline in BTC’s price. However, at some point during 2022, the crypto market will start to decouple from stocks and the U.S. major equities indexes, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. The bullish momentum for the digital assets could be supported by a decline in both the value of legacy markets and a downside trend in terms of correlation with cryptocurrencies. Related Reading | Ethereum (ETH) Bends Toward $1,000 As Doubt Fills Crypto Markets As Hayes explained, that’s when you want to pay attention: For me to hoist the flag in support of selling fiat and buying crypto in advance of an NDX meltdown (30% to 50% drawdown), correlations across all time frames need to trend demonstratively lower.

  • $15k Possible Bottom For Bitcoin? “Delta Cap” Says So

    The “delta capitalization” model of Bitcoin may suggest that around $15k could be a possible bottom for the crypto’s price. Past Delta Cap Trend Shows Bitcoin May Still Face More Decline Before A Bottom As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the BTC market cap is now below the realized cap, but still above the delta cap. Before taking a look at the data, it’s best to first get a basic grasp of the three major capitalization models for Bitcoin. The normal market cap is calculated by just taking the total number of coins currently in circulation and multiplying it by the price of BTC right now. The “realized cap” works a bit differently; instead of multiplying all the coins by the same price, this model weighs each coin by the price it was last moved at. Related Reading | USDC Exchange Reserves Rise As Investors Escape From Bitcoin For example, if there are 2 BTC in circulation and the current price is $19k, then the normal market cap is simply $38k. However, if one of these coins was last transacted at, say, $15k, and the other at $19k, then the realized cap would be $34k instead. Now, the Bitcoin “delta cap” is defined as the difference between the realized cap and the average of the market cap. The average of the normal market cap here is taken over the entire history of the crypto (and it’s naturally a moving average). The below chart shows the trend in the different market caps for BTC. The normal market cap still seems to be above the delta cap at the moment | Source: CryptoQuant As you can see in the above graph, the Bitcoin market cap has recently dipped below the realized cap. However, it has still not gone down near enough to touch the delta cap. Historically, the value of the crypto has formed bottoms whenever the market cap has been between the other two caps. Related Reading | Fed Announces Inflation Warnings As Bitcoin Whales Remain In Wait Mode In 2020, the coin bottomed out after the market cap went slightly under the realized cap, but in 2018 the metric even dipped a bit below the delta cap before the bottom was in. This past trend may suggest that the point around the delta cap may be the possible lower bound for how deep the coin’s price can sink. And if so, then Bitcoin could potentially sink to or a little under $15k, before the current cap touches the delta cap and the bottom forms. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $19.3k, down 9% in the past week. BTC has gone down over the last few days | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Dmitry Demidko on Unsplash.com, charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com

  • New Bitcoin Record Paints Incredibly Bearish Picture As BTC...

    Bitcoin has been setting new record trends with the bear market. This follows a bull market that had also deviated largely from its predecessors, so it comes as no surprise that the subsequent near market mirrored this behavior. Various new trends in bitcoin’s movement have cemented a bearish picture for the digital asset, and the latest in the line of records has only done more to cement this sentiment. Worse Quarterly Close In More Than A Decade Bitcoin has been in existence for about 13 years and in that time, the barely teenage-aged market has recorded its fair share of bad quarterly closes. However, in the last 11 years, none have been as brutal as the close that was recorded on June 30th. After a month of incredibly volatile prices, the month had closed out the quarter with three consecutive red monthly closes.  Related Reading | Bitcoin Enters Hibernation Mode As Network Activity Lulls This comes hot on the heels of the market crash that had rocked the market this year. Bitcoin which leads the market had fallen about 60% from its price at the beginning of the quarter and had brought down the entire market with it. This had seen the crypto total market crash drop below $1 trillion for the first time in a 16-month period. The digital asset had closed the month at $19,918 after entering the month with an average price of $30,000. This had dashed the hopes of investors and the decline has left in its wake a number of events that continue to threaten the prices in the cryptocurrency market.   BTC struggles to hold $19,000 | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com Bitcoin Investors Are Not Impressed Even though predictions had been incredibly bullish for the year 2022, it has since gone sideways. This has triggered investors to move their funds out of the market for fear of incurring more losses. Also, following previous historical trends, it remains highly possible that the digital asset may crash more before there is any significant recovery. Related Reading | Decline In Ethereum Futures On CME Suggests Institutional Investors Are Still Bearish Looking at the indicators, it shows that bitcoin has struggled to hold the important technical levels required for a recovery in the short term. It has been trading below its 200-week moving average for the first time in history, and this has deepened negative sentiment in the market. Although the digital asset has been moving away from established historical trends, there is still a high chance that it follows some of the previous market movements. One of these is when the bottom is usually in. Sticking to this would mean that the price of bitcoin will likely touch as low as $12,000 before the next bull trend resumes. Featured image from Coin News, chart from TradingView.com Follow Best Owie on Twitter for market insights, updates, and the occasional funny tweet…

  • Why Bitcoin Could Collapse Another 50%, Says Michael “Big...

    Former hedge fund manager Michael Burry made another bearish prediction for Bitcoin and traditional equities. Renowned for his short position which preceded the U.S. housing market crash, and one of the periods in recent economic history for the world, Burry believes more pain for BTC’s price is ahead. Related Reading | Shiba Inu (SHIB) Shines Green In Pool Of Crimson – Who’s Buying? Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $19,400 with an 8% loss in the past 7 days. The cryptocurrency was moving sideways around its 2017 all-time high levels, $20,000, but the market took yet another turn to the downside and might re-test its yearly lows near $17,000. This could be a fraction of future losses, according to Burry. The former hedge fund manager has been bearish on BTC seems the cryptocurrency was trading north of $60,000, in October 2021. Via his Twitter account, Burry asked his followers tips on how to short a cryptocurrency: Ok, I haven’t done this before, how do you short a cryptocurrency. Do you have to secure a borrow? Is there a short rebate? Can the position be squeezed and called in? In such volatile situations, I tend to think it’s best not to short (…). A short time after, BTC’s price reached its current all-time high which could have resulted in major profits for Burry, if he was able to open a short position. In that case, he might still wait on taking profits, according to its latest prediction, traditional equities and BTC could experience more downside on the back of a bad earnings season: Adjusted for inflation, 2022 first half S&P 500 down 25-26%, and Nasdaq down 34-35%, Bitcoin down 64-65%. That was multiple compression. Next up, earnings compression. So, maybe halfway there. Some Good News For Bitcoin In The Short Term Two experts recently shared potential bullish catalyzers for Bitcoin, at least for a short period of time. Jurrien Timmer, Director of Macro for investment firm Fidelity, believes equities have a chance to rebound from their recent crash. However, Timmer believes the risk-off season could extend further while bond yields trend upwards. In the upcoming earnings season for U.S. publicly traded companies, one could provide more clues on what’s next for the market, including Bitcoin which has been displaying a correlation with traditional equities. With bond yields down and equities up, the correlation between the two asset classes remains slightly positive on a 12-month basis. It’s rare to see the Z-score for both stocks and bonds so negative at the same time. pic.twitter.com/BhJ8BklPmo — Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) July 1, 2022 On the other hand, Bloomberg Intelligence Mike McGlone has been expecting a drop in the price of commodities. If these assets trend to the downside, the Fed might slow down on its economic tightening and provide risk-on assets like Bitcoin with some room for relief. Commodities rallying often indicate high inflation, they suggest the opposite when they trend to the downside which could suggest the U.S. financial institution might be succeeding at cutting down inflation, currently their apparent number one priority. McGlone said: Commodities Aren’t Complicated, 1H Was High: When the history of 2022 is written, there’s a good chance that the 1H pump in commodity prices will play out like similar surges in the past, with a reciprocal dump. Timmer and other experts believe that negative news on the economy, talks of economic recession, and a sustained market crash might allow the Fed to become more dovish on its monetary policy. The market has reacted to the downside as a result of the Fed, but some believe this will be insufficient to stop inflation. Related Reading | Ethereum (ETH) Bends Toward $1,000 As Doubt Fills Crypto Markets Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has expressed doubts about a less aggressive monetary policy. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Powell said bringing down inflation will result in “some pain” for global markets. Does this mean Burry will be right as in 2008?

  • Crypto Market Loses $60 Billion As Bitcoin Dips Below...

    As of June 28, the bitcoin price fluctuated slightly above the $20K mark. However, toward the end of the day, it eventually dropped to $20K. The market watch also noted the bearish state in the price of most altcoins. These include DOGE, AVAX, SOL, and many others. Drawing from June 29 data, Bitcoin’s price has finally plunged below the $20K mark. Many renowned cryptos like the Ethereum, Shiba Inu, and Doge tokens also feel the heat of the bearish turn in the market. Bitcoin Lost The $20,000 Price Mark According to the news last week, Bitcoin made several attempts to come off the loss in value. During that time, its price shot from $17,500 to $21,000. This was a recovery from its 18-month low price mark. It sustained this $21K price mark until it hit its 10-day high price, a little over $21,800. Suggested Reading | Bitcoin Slides Under $20K – Another Collapse In The Offing? The journey to a higher price became abortive for BTC, and it eventually dipped lower than $21K. It attempted to hit this price, but all attempts proved unsuccessful. BTC’s unsuccessful attempts to appreciate eventually turned into a bearish trend toward $20K. According to the news on June 28, it managed to get slightly above the $20K benchmark. From today’s market watch, the price of Bitcoin has plunged below $20,000. At the time of writing, it is still fluctuating below this price, bringing its market cap below $400B. The Effect On Other Digital Tokens The bearish movement of Bitcoin’s price affects the rest of the digital tokens. This explains the several red bars in the crypto market chart. During the last weekend, Ethereum attempted to go higher amid the bearish state of the market. At the time, ETH was trading at $1,200. However, this did not last too long as Ethereum’s price currently sells at $1,116, about a 6.5% daily decline in price. According to the altcoins price data from CoinMarketCap, BNB now trades at $219. This is about a 7.5% 24 hours plunge in its price. There are other altcoins down trend records like SOL, DOGE, SHIB, and XRP, to mention a few. Suggested Reading | Ethereum (ETH) Hammered Down To $950 As Crypto Selloff Deepens Also, despite the slight appreciation of the LEO, Tron, and Cardano tokens, they remain in the chart’s red zone. So, judging from the current state of all crypto assets from 2 days back, the total dump in the overall market cap sums up to $60B. Adding this figure to the total drop in the market cap since the beginning of the bearish trend equates to $900 Billion. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView.com